CRYPTO TREYSI

Friends, if you pay attention to the chart above, you will see that bitcoin reserves have fallen to an unprecedented low, which creates a strong shortage of coins and has a positive impact on the price of the asset. 🔤 A sharp yet strong market buyback has begun, which serves as a good driver for further gains. The most interesting thing is that this happened in just a week. In a couple of days, the mood of the market has completely changed. Yes, earlier I was expecting a deeper correction. However, due to the recent news background (improved economic relations between China and the U.S.), the breakout of key resistance levels, and a sharp increase in buying volumes, the market outlook has shifted to a bullish trend. ❕ Given the current market components, the upward trend should continue in the medium term 🔥 CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

Friends, looking at the chart of altcoin capitalization (excluding BTC), we see a pattern: every rebound from the trend line was accompanied by growth - and the start of the altcoin (or local) season. 🔤 The level of $835 billion has again held — as it did in the fall of 2023, and in the summer of 2024. It was from these points that growth began. Now we are seeing a rebound from those same levels again. A pause in tariffs from Trump and talks with China temporarily relieves geopolitical pressure — a plus for risk assets. A plus is a rate cut, which is bound to happen sooner or later, and rate cuts = liquidity inflows. ❕ Of course, time will tell how it will be in reality, but everything looks at least promising 🔥 CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

Friends, Bitcoin dominance has reached its highest level since February 2021 — 64%! 🔤 The unfortunate part is that there are still no signs of a reversal, which means altcoins are likely to continue their decline, just as I mentioned yesterday. Due to Bitcoin’s overwhelming dominance, the altcoin sector simply has no room to move independently. That’s why expecting any strong growth from alts right now is unrealistic. It’s also important to note that the current situation is amplifying the capitulation effect across the altcoin market. ❕ Many traders and investors, especially newcomers, are starting to exit their positions at a loss, which only accelerates the downward movement — and, at the same time, brings us closer to the bottom 🐳 CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

Friends, in the first part, I already gave you the main insights about the altcoin bubble. Now it’s time to look at one of its main causes. 🔤 One of the key triggers for the disastrous situation with altcoins since 2023 is the emergence of an inflated bubble in the venture investment market. Those of you who entered the market before 2021 surely remember the hype around platforms like CoinList, which allowed regular retail players to make hundreds of X's in profits. If ordinary workers made money on this, funds certainly took home massive profit percentages. 💵 During the previous cycle, VC funds achieved an average return of 563x. But today, the situation is different — in the current cycle, the figure is just 4x. Seeing such returns in the previous bull run, funds began allocating even more capital. Additionally, a huge number of small funds and various family offices entered the space. 📑 This led to two consequences: • An Overabundance of Capital: As a result, startups didn’t lower their valuations because they knew they would still receive funding. • Incorrect Project Valuation: For instance, a founder would tell a fund that his project is a "Solana killer," but he would have nothing more than a website and a pitch deck filled with buzzwords. How did funds react?: "Well, if your technology is better than Solana but you don't have a product yet — let's divide Solana’s valuation by 10 and evaluate you that way." This led to worthless projects being valued at hundreds of millions. 🔖 An absurd situation emerged: there were benchmarks that were themselves bubbles because no one knew how to value them, and new projects were assessed based on these faulty benchmarks. You can see the result today in most altcoins that launched in Q3-Q4 2024 — Q1 2025. My Expectations: The market will concentrate on projects with sustainable economies. These will go through a correction phase, followed by gradual and healthy growth, no longer driven by speculation. ❕ Additionally, the number of venture funds will decrease. Most of them will face significant losses, leading to a cooling of the crypto venture market. Put 🔥 if you like the post CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

Friends, went to Trump's public wallet again today and noted for myself that 90% of the assets in his portfolio are based on the Ethereum blockchain. If you're still wondering which assets are best to buy on the spot, I think the answer is obvious. ❕ All of the biggest players in the market are putting the main focus specifically on ether and the assets in its blockchain. It should make its holders very happy in this cycle 🔥 CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

Friends, altcoin market capitalisation has perfectly tested the multi-year support line today. 95% of useless projects are gone or didn't survive in the market - this is a good sign for new growth. ❕ If you've been waiting for a good time to accumulate altcoins, I think you can buy (although most of you are probably already sitting with bags of tokens) 🐳 CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

Friends, for the past year and a half, many have been clinging to the hope of a massive altseason, largely due to flashbacks from the bull markets of 2017 and 2021. However, the current situation is drastically different. The altcoin market has become a massive bubble, with project metrics skyrocketing beyond reason. 🔎 How a financial bubble forms A financial bubble occurs when asset prices are significantly inflated beyond their true economic value. The main causes include: • excessive investor optimism • mass speculative demand • herd mentality 🛡 These bubbles often arise due to the difficulty of valuing emerging technologies. For instance, 20–25 years ago, the internet’s potential was clear, but its development trajectory and valuation remained uncertain. This uncertainty fuels speculation, leading people to invest without fundamental metrics — because they don’t exist yet. 💸 A similar situation in crypto In traditional finance, we have numerous valuation metrics to assess an industry or a specific company: ROE, ROA, EV/EBITDA, and so on. Crypto, however, lacks such established norms, making valuation more challenging. This was particularly evident during the 2017 and 2021 bull runs. 🔤 But now, some key metrics are emerging, such as: • P/F — market cap to fees generated • P/MAU — market cap to monthly active users • P/GDP — market cap to the total ecosystem volume In traditional markets, major companies within a sector tend to have similar valuation ratios, with differences rarely exceeding 2x. 📥 Now, let’s look at the crypto market… The discrepancies here are far greater. For instance, the P/F ratio: • Ethereum + L2 — 638x • Solana — 82x • BNB — 234x • Aptos — 4547x Such extreme variations indicate a highly distorted market and a clear bubble, particularly in the L1 chain sector. 🔖 Some may argue that these projects should be evaluated as startups, where such high valuations are more common. Fair enough! The most straightforward and effective method in this case is comparative analysis — benchmarking projects against an industry standard. A benchmark is a reference point used for comparison. In our case, Ethereum serves as the benchmark. 📑 We conducted a detailed analysis and reached significant conclusions. Here’s a brief summary for you: Solana is undervalued by 16% compared to its competitors. However, all other major projects are massively overvalued: • BNB — +282% • TON — +447% • Aptos — +1548% ❕ As you can see, the crypto bubble is undeniable from any perspective. But why did it form, and how did the market allow it? Are we heading for a crash similar to the dot-com era? Drop some reactions🔥, and we’ll release the follow-up analysis soon! CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

Friends, I’m back. There haven’t been posts for a few days as I was dealing with some important personal matters. Today, I want to discuss the topic of stablecoin adoption. 🔤 Recently, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino stated that an audit of Tether’s reserves could finally take place thanks to the cancellation of Chokepoint 2.0. The company is currently working with a «Big Four» auditing firm to carry out the audit of its reserves. The Choke Point 2.0 operation is a term used to describe the Biden administration's alleged strategy aimed at limiting cryptocurrency companies’ access to banking services. 🔎 What will this bring? It will reduce concerns about USDT, including accusations of illegal activities, and confirm Tether’s reserves (~$143 billion). This is important since Tether is the 7th largest holder of U.S. government debt. It was reported yesterday that the U.S. House will consider stablecoin legislation on April 2. 🔖 It seems that China also doesn’t want to fall behind in this «war», and rumors are already circulating that the government plans to accelerate the development of stablecoins backed by the yuan. It’s safe to say that stablecoins will play an increasingly important role in the global economy, and their adoption and integration into financial systems will only benefit cryptocurrency. ❕ The market capitalization of stablecoins is currently $237 billion, nearly double last year’s figure. New ATHs for stablecoins are historically bullish for the crypto market, though time is needed.🔥 CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

Friends, Digital Asset Summit 2025 was recently held, where Trump said some nice words: 1️⃣ Called on the US Congress to pass a law to regulate stablecoins. 2️⃣ Let's create a crypto reserve and not sell like Biden. 3️⃣ Crypto is the greatest revolution and together we will make America the undisputed bitcoin superpower and crypto capital of the world. Although the rumour that Trump would announce the abolition of capital gains tax for crypto didn't come true, but overall — theses are bullish for us. In fact, the crypto war in the US is over — the day before yesterday the SEC dropped the case against XRP and other companies like Coinbase, Robinhood, Gemini, Kraken, Yuga Labs, etc. 🔤 Projects are raising large sums, just yesterday TON raised $400m, Walrus raised $140m, and many projects are rushing to get out as seen in the seals and announcements. But despite this, their numbers are multiples less than they were in the last bull market. Whales are actively accumulating BTC and ETH, while the SEC has clarified that miners and mining pools aren’t engaged in securities offerings, bringing more clarity for the industry. ❕ It's as if this whole puzzle is adding up and giving the feeling that we are about to be somewhere on the cusp of that very upward reversal 🔥 CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

Friends, I decided to share a quick post with my thoughts on Bitcoin—right now, the price is around $82,000. 🔤 At the moment, I would expect a correction down to approximately $74,000, followed by an upward reversal. However, my team and I do not plan to make any short-term trades within this range. In general, trading inside a range is always riskier than trading from its boundaries. Why Do I Expect a Correction? 1️⃣ I believe the market is still underestimating the impact of Bitcoin being included in the Strategic Reserve. The real effect has yet to materialize. The executive order states that «government-held Bitcoins included in the Strategic Reserve are not subject to sale and must remain as U.S. reserve assets». If you follow the market, you’ve probably seen theories that a correction is expected due to the distribution and potential sell-off of funds from the now-defunct Mt. Gox. 💸 A similar concern existed around the possible sale of Bitcoins confiscated by the U.S. government. However, this risk is no longer relevant at the legislative level. Considering that the U.S. government holds approximately 190,000 BTC, this is a strong positive factor, as there is no potential for massive sell pressure. 2️⃣ The market is currently in a state of clear uncertainty, and during such times, investors tend to sell rather than buy. ❕ As always, this is not financial advice, and all decisions are yours to make. Personally, I am waiting for a clearer market environment and am not making any trades for now 🐳 CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

Today, I took a look at the Ethereum chart and noticed something interesting. ETH is still holding above its long-term support line. 🔤 Since 2021, it has tested this line only four times, and each time it led to the formation of a bottom. I believe this time won’t be any different. Right now, the price is hovering near that level, and if it drops a bit lower to around $1,700, I’ll be expecting a price reversal. In general, the crypto community has a pretty big bet on ETH right now, but I wouldn't share that much optimism. ❕ For Ethereum, it is extremely important to improve its marketing and only then it will be able to show a furor. What type of posts do you prefer? 🔥 — several smaller posts throughout the day 🐳 — one big post once a day CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

Noticed a lot of guys were a little freaked out yesterday by what I said about the changes in this cycle — but it's not all that scary. 🔤 Despite the changing narratives and general market sentiment, this cycle is looking more and more like 2017. Q1 didn't go well for BTC then either, but it surged in Q2. Guess who was the US president then? That's right — Trump, just like now. ❕ Plus, the global money supply has reached a new ATH, which means BTC may soon follow suit 🔥 CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

Friends, I have the strong feeling that Trump has challenged the geopolitical order that has been in place for decades. 🔤 His aggressive trade policy, sharp tariff hikes, and global market uncertainty have already had the first effect — the US dollar has started to lose ground. Against the backdrop of a weakening dollar, Europe, on the other hand, is breathing more freely: stocks in the EU have surged, the yield on German bonds saw its sharpest jump since the fall of the Berlin Wall, and the euro strengthened. But here’s what’s strange — Bitcoin is not rising. 📥 In the past, when the dollar index dropped, crypto, especially BTC, showed an inverse correlation and went up. However, now the market is not reacting in the usual way. While the dollar continues to lose ground, Bitcoin is stuck in a narrow range and is not showing signs of upward momentum. This is a new market, and the old models no longer work the way they used to. ❕ We’ll keep an eye on the movement, but for now, the previous narratives should be reconsidered. We are entering a new phase, and the usual patterns might yield different results — this is something we must accept. Should I make a detailed post on this topic? 🔥 — Yes 🐳 — No CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

Friends, if you're feeling down because of a dip in your portfolio, keep in mind — Trump is also sitting in the red. Trump’s portfolio is currently down by $124 million! He’s riding out this drawdown right alongside us. This man clearly didn’t pick his coins randomly — I believe he knows very well that there’s light at the end of the tunnel and the long-awaited altcoin rally is coming. ❕ The fact that he’s calmly holding onto his assets and even buying more speaks volumes…🔥 CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

Friends, more and more people on social media are comparing MicroStrategy to LUNA and FTX, calling it the next potential liquidation that could drag the market down. MicroStrategy has long been a symbol of corporate BTC accumulation. 🔤 Since its first purchase in 2020, the company has accumulated more than 193,000 BTC, using not only its own funds but also borrowed capital. The main question: Could MicroStrategy be forced to liquidate its Bitcoin assets? Many are concerned that a drop in BTC price could lead to a margin call and mass selling. Let's break down the real situation. 🔎 How are MicroStrategy’s finances structured? 1️⃣ Debt Structure: • $7.2 billion in total debt, of which $2.2 billion is secured by BTC. • Convertible bonds ($2.2 billion) with low interest rates and maturities in 2028-2030. • $2.2 billion in fixed-rate bonds with no liquidation requirements. • $2.8 billion in secured loans, with BTC serving as collateral. 2️⃣ Margin Calls and Liquidation: • MicroStrategy took a margin loan from Silvergate ($205 million) secured by BTC, but this loan was paid off in 2023. • The company currently has no urgent margin loan obligations that could trigger forced liquidation. • If BTC drops to $10,000, MicroStrategy could still provide additional BTC as collateral. 📥 Why isn’t MicroStrategy liquidating? • The company does not use highly risky leverage. • Its long-term obligations have low interest rates and deferred maturities. • Margin calls are unlikely due to the flexible collateral structure. ❕ Key takeaway: the myth of MicroStrategy being forced to liquidate is an exaggeration. The company confidently continues its BTC-buying strategy and is not at risk, even during major market upheavals 🔥 CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

Friends, it's likely that some altcoins have been sitting in a drawdown in your wallets for a long time, and you're thinking: "I'll hold until the end, growth is inevitable!" On one hand, this is a valid statement, but what if most people are thinking this way, and the rule "95% of people lose money" has stopped working... 🔤 Over the past month, the market has been delighting us with many positive news, but the charts continue to slide down, and there's a feeling that people aren't selling at all, but just holding their positions. Trading volumes on leading CEXs significantly dropped in February — the total spot volume fell by 21%. Notably, Upbit lost 46% of its total volume, and Kraken saw a 27% decrease. 📊 Traders are either refraining from trading during the current correction, waiting for a growth wave, or they’ve already built up spot positions and are just observing. But in any case, they need an uptrend. Try answering this question: What kind of news event could suddenly push the market up now? — It’s difficult to say. A lot has already happened that we would not have believed just a year ago — theoretically, the market should be in much better shape. But perhaps, this is exactly what will force the market to finally clean itself up and enter a growth phase?! 🔎 Let's consider a scenario that currently seems quite realistic: Bitcoin is at $80,000, and it continues to drop to $70,000, dragging the entire market with it. At the same time, many news stories come out: approval of staking on ETH-ETF, the start of quantitative easing, approval of ETFs for SOL and XRP, etc. It’s easy to imagine what’s going on in people's minds: "That’s it, altcoins are dead. The market is full of positivity, but we’re only going down — it seems better to sell and preserve what’s left." 📥 The probability that the rule "95% of people lose money in the market" no longer applies is practically zero. The key is to adapt it to current conditions. In this cycle, we might see how key news will only start to play out after a few months. We’ve seen this happen many times in history. For example, in November 2008, the Fed announced a large-scale asset (bond) buyback, but the S&P 500 continued to fall for several months after the announcement — recession fears were stronger. Only in March 2009 did the powerful bull run begin, lasting for years. It took 4 months for the market to "believe" in the positivity of QE. ❕ Yes, the market is falling — it's tough. If you sell now, you might buy back lower, but are you willing to sell at a loss? Patient and flexible investors always win in the long run 🔥 CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

Friends, today I was analyzing various indicators and I want to draw your attention to one key fact: Even when BTC reaches ~$72,000, long positions will be liquidated by no more than $100 million. 🔤 However, with further recovery to ~$90,000, short positions will be liquidated by approximately $2.2 billion — the difference is enormous. This is a clear sign that short positions are currently dominating the market. — This imbalance needs to be addressed, so I am focused on a good rally to the upside to harvest the available liquidity and change market sentiment. ❕ Yes, this isn’t a panacea, but such an imbalance should definitely affect the behavior of major players, as their main goal is to make a profit, and our goal is to understand how they will do it and follow their lead 🔥 CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

Friends, yesterday Wall Street experienced one of its worst days in the past three years. In just 24 hours, $1.7 trillion was wiped off the U.S. stock market. And since February 20, total losses have reached $4.5 trillion. — S&P 500: -5.04% — Nasdaq: -4.04% — Dow Jones: -2.48% Tech giants posted their worst performance since 2020. A broad correction is underway, fear is spreading, and investors are fleeing risk assets. 💰 There’s growing talk that the main driver for BTC right now is liquidity. The M2 money supply — a key measure of available money in the economy — has bottomed out and is starting to rise sharply. Historically, Bitcoin tends to follow this trend with about a 20-day lag. If the theory holds true, we might see a fresh price surge and a reversal for BTC in the coming weeks. However, it's important to note that not all M2 liquidity flows into risk assets. — Some are buying gold, others prefer bonds, and some are simply moving into cash. 🔤 Arthur Hayes — former CEO of BitMEX believes: 1️⃣ $70,000 is likely the local bottom before further upside 2️⃣ A 30%+ correction is a standard part of a bull market 3️⃣ If the stock market continues to crash, major central banks will restart the money printer — and that means a new wave of liquidity that could send Bitcoin higher again Financial markets move in cycles. Right now, we’re in a downturn marked by panic and risk-off behavior. ❕ But if the Fed and other central banks start flooding the system with liquidity again, Bitcoin may become the biggest beneficiary of the next phase 🔥 CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

Friends, mistakes are an inevitable part of trading, one of its most important components. You probably know this, but many traders still get very stressed about losing trades. Let’s go through a few useful principles that will not only help minimize mistakes but also manage them properly. 1️⃣ Define Invalidation in Advance Any trading idea should be falsifiable — before entering a trade, you should have a set of conditions under which your hypothesis becomes irrelevant. If there are no such conditions, you are trading blindly and cannot objectively assess your risk. 2️⃣ Follow the Established Limits Planning for invalidation is not enough — you also need to stick to it. A classic example of poor risk management: Entering a trade with full risk → the price moves against you → adding to the losing position → refusing to sell the position → a large loss. Some traders justify this by the desire to be flexible, but flexibility should be built into the analysis before entry, not appear after the fact when the situation gets out of control. 3️⃣ Stick to Position Sizes The size of your position should match the probability profile of the setup: • Higher risk for rare but highly effective setups that bring in the main profit. • Lower risk for standard, frequently occurring setups with a positive expected value. The key is to not exceed the established risk limits. Increasing the position in a losing trade creates a synthetic losing streak and can lead to catastrophic consequences. 4️⃣ Don’t Worsen the Mistakes A streak of losses is inevitable even in a successful strategy. The greatest damage happens when small mistakes turn into a series of catastrophic failures: • Trading out of spite or revenge against the market. • Doubling down on losing positions. • Sharply increasing risk after losses. 🔤 When a trader enters a nervous state, they lose control over themselves. If you had a flat tire, you wouldn’t get out of the car and puncture the other three tires, would you? However, this happens all the time in trading. ❕ Your task is to find a system that protects you from yourself. Let’s work...🔥 CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe