CRYPTO TREYSI

Friends, only 3 days remain until the long-awaited Fed meeting, where an official announcement on a rate cut is expected! 🔤 In my personal opinion, supported by insights from top US market analysts, the probability of a rate cut currently stands at 93%. We can expect the market to react positively once these expectations are priced in, which should lead to growth. However, ahead of this event, the majority of traders will likely try to profit from long positions, which could create an excess of liquidity in the opposite direction. ❕ Therefore, before the next upward move, I wouldn’t be surprised to see an initial dip. Keep this in mind — locally, the market often moves against the «crowd», but the overall trend usually remains intact 🔥 CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

Friends, over the past couple of weeks Ethereum (ETH) has been significantly outperforming BTC both in terms of price dynamics and volatility. So let’s break down its chart and figure out — is it too late to buy, and is it worth going long? 🔤 In the last 4 days, ETH has gained more than 10% and is now consolidating around the $4,700 level. Ahead, we have the $4,791: mark (see the chart attached to this post) — a fairly strong resistance level, from which we might see a local pullback. 📥 That’s why my approach right now is simply to watch how the asset behaves as it approaches $4,790: • If the move is sharp and there’s no follow-through momentum after the breakout, I’ll take a short position (sell). • If the move is smooth and gradual, I’ll be entering a long position (buy). My most important rule is this: patience. Only those who approach the market carefully and analyze each trade properly make big money. ❕ I know this both from my own experience and from the experience of my successful trader friends, who have already made tens of millions of dollars from trading 🔥 CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

Friends, today I opened the Ethereum/Bitcoin chart and noticed that it has reached a key support level, which is currently considered one of the strongest areas for a potential reversal. In the medium term, a reversal from this level is highly likely. 🔤 Why is it important to watch the ETH/BTC pair? The ETH/BTC pair reflects Ethereum's strength relative to Bitcoin. When ETH rises against BTC, it often signals a shift in demand from Bitcoin towards altcoins. Thus, the growth of this pair can indicate the beginning of an «altseason» — the phase we've all been eagerly awaiting. ❕That's why it's crucial to closely monitor ETH/BTC — a reversal from this support level could serve as an early signal for broader market growth🔥 CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

Friends, if you pay attention to the chart above, you will see that bitcoin reserves have fallen to an unprecedented low, which creates a strong shortage of coins and has a positive impact on the price of the asset. 🔤 A sharp yet strong market buyback has begun, which serves as a good driver for further gains. The most interesting thing is that this happened in just a week. In a couple of days, the mood of the market has completely changed. Yes, earlier I was expecting a deeper correction. However, due to the recent news background (improved economic relations between China and the U.S.), the breakout of key resistance levels, and a sharp increase in buying volumes, the market outlook has shifted to a bullish trend. ❕ Given the current market components, the upward trend should continue in the medium term 🔥 CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

Friends, looking at the chart of altcoin capitalization (excluding BTC), we see a pattern: every rebound from the trend line was accompanied by growth - and the start of the altcoin (or local) season. 🔤 The level of $835 billion has again held — as it did in the fall of 2023, and in the summer of 2024. It was from these points that growth began. Now we are seeing a rebound from those same levels again. A pause in tariffs from Trump and talks with China temporarily relieves geopolitical pressure — a plus for risk assets. A plus is a rate cut, which is bound to happen sooner or later, and rate cuts = liquidity inflows. ❕ Of course, time will tell how it will be in reality, but everything looks at least promising 🔥 CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

Friends, Bitcoin dominance has reached its highest level since February 2021 — 64%! 🔤 The unfortunate part is that there are still no signs of a reversal, which means altcoins are likely to continue their decline, just as I mentioned yesterday. Due to Bitcoin’s overwhelming dominance, the altcoin sector simply has no room to move independently. That’s why expecting any strong growth from alts right now is unrealistic. It’s also important to note that the current situation is amplifying the capitulation effect across the altcoin market. ❕ Many traders and investors, especially newcomers, are starting to exit their positions at a loss, which only accelerates the downward movement — and, at the same time, brings us closer to the bottom 🐳 CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

Friends, in the first part, I already gave you the main insights about the altcoin bubble. Now it’s time to look at one of its main causes. 🔤 One of the key triggers for the disastrous situation with altcoins since 2023 is the emergence of an inflated bubble in the venture investment market. Those of you who entered the market before 2021 surely remember the hype around platforms like CoinList, which allowed regular retail players to make hundreds of X's in profits. If ordinary workers made money on this, funds certainly took home massive profit percentages. 💵 During the previous cycle, VC funds achieved an average return of 563x. But today, the situation is different — in the current cycle, the figure is just 4x. Seeing such returns in the previous bull run, funds began allocating even more capital. Additionally, a huge number of small funds and various family offices entered the space. 📑 This led to two consequences: • An Overabundance of Capital: As a result, startups didn’t lower their valuations because they knew they would still receive funding. • Incorrect Project Valuation: For instance, a founder would tell a fund that his project is a "Solana killer," but he would have nothing more than a website and a pitch deck filled with buzzwords. How did funds react?: "Well, if your technology is better than Solana but you don't have a product yet — let's divide Solana’s valuation by 10 and evaluate you that way." This led to worthless projects being valued at hundreds of millions. 🔖 An absurd situation emerged: there were benchmarks that were themselves bubbles because no one knew how to value them, and new projects were assessed based on these faulty benchmarks. You can see the result today in most altcoins that launched in Q3-Q4 2024 — Q1 2025. My Expectations: The market will concentrate on projects with sustainable economies. These will go through a correction phase, followed by gradual and healthy growth, no longer driven by speculation. ❕ Additionally, the number of venture funds will decrease. Most of them will face significant losses, leading to a cooling of the crypto venture market. Put 🔥 if you like the post CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

Friends, went to Trump's public wallet again today and noted for myself that 90% of the assets in his portfolio are based on the Ethereum blockchain. If you're still wondering which assets are best to buy on the spot, I think the answer is obvious. ❕ All of the biggest players in the market are putting the main focus specifically on ether and the assets in its blockchain. It should make its holders very happy in this cycle 🔥 CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

Friends, altcoin market capitalisation has perfectly tested the multi-year support line today. 95% of useless projects are gone or didn't survive in the market - this is a good sign for new growth. ❕ If you've been waiting for a good time to accumulate altcoins, I think you can buy (although most of you are probably already sitting with bags of tokens) 🐳 CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

Friends, for the past year and a half, many have been clinging to the hope of a massive altseason, largely due to flashbacks from the bull markets of 2017 and 2021. However, the current situation is drastically different. The altcoin market has become a massive bubble, with project metrics skyrocketing beyond reason. 🔎 How a financial bubble forms A financial bubble occurs when asset prices are significantly inflated beyond their true economic value. The main causes include: • excessive investor optimism • mass speculative demand • herd mentality 🛡 These bubbles often arise due to the difficulty of valuing emerging technologies. For instance, 20–25 years ago, the internet’s potential was clear, but its development trajectory and valuation remained uncertain. This uncertainty fuels speculation, leading people to invest without fundamental metrics — because they don’t exist yet. 💸 A similar situation in crypto In traditional finance, we have numerous valuation metrics to assess an industry or a specific company: ROE, ROA, EV/EBITDA, and so on. Crypto, however, lacks such established norms, making valuation more challenging. This was particularly evident during the 2017 and 2021 bull runs. 🔤 But now, some key metrics are emerging, such as: • P/F — market cap to fees generated • P/MAU — market cap to monthly active users • P/GDP — market cap to the total ecosystem volume In traditional markets, major companies within a sector tend to have similar valuation ratios, with differences rarely exceeding 2x. 📥 Now, let’s look at the crypto market… The discrepancies here are far greater. For instance, the P/F ratio: • Ethereum + L2 — 638x • Solana — 82x • BNB — 234x • Aptos — 4547x Such extreme variations indicate a highly distorted market and a clear bubble, particularly in the L1 chain sector. 🔖 Some may argue that these projects should be evaluated as startups, where such high valuations are more common. Fair enough! The most straightforward and effective method in this case is comparative analysis — benchmarking projects against an industry standard. A benchmark is a reference point used for comparison. In our case, Ethereum serves as the benchmark. 📑 We conducted a detailed analysis and reached significant conclusions. Here’s a brief summary for you: Solana is undervalued by 16% compared to its competitors. However, all other major projects are massively overvalued: • BNB — +282% • TON — +447% • Aptos — +1548% ❕ As you can see, the crypto bubble is undeniable from any perspective. But why did it form, and how did the market allow it? Are we heading for a crash similar to the dot-com era? Drop some reactions🔥, and we’ll release the follow-up analysis soon! CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe

Friends, I’m back. There haven’t been posts for a few days as I was dealing with some important personal matters. Today, I want to discuss the topic of stablecoin adoption. 🔤 Recently, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino stated that an audit of Tether’s reserves could finally take place thanks to the cancellation of Chokepoint 2.0. The company is currently working with a «Big Four» auditing firm to carry out the audit of its reserves. The Choke Point 2.0 operation is a term used to describe the Biden administration's alleged strategy aimed at limiting cryptocurrency companies’ access to banking services. 🔎 What will this bring? It will reduce concerns about USDT, including accusations of illegal activities, and confirm Tether’s reserves (~$143 billion). This is important since Tether is the 7th largest holder of U.S. government debt. It was reported yesterday that the U.S. House will consider stablecoin legislation on April 2. 🔖 It seems that China also doesn’t want to fall behind in this «war», and rumors are already circulating that the government plans to accelerate the development of stablecoins backed by the yuan. It’s safe to say that stablecoins will play an increasingly important role in the global economy, and their adoption and integration into financial systems will only benefit cryptocurrency. ❕ The market capitalization of stablecoins is currently $237 billion, nearly double last year’s figure. New ATHs for stablecoins are historically bullish for the crypto market, though time is needed.🔥 CRYPTO TREYSI | Subscribe