Solana is at $89, down 70% from the ATH, and it looks like the market has written it off.
But in the RateXAI Post-TGE model it scores AA 85/100, with near best-in-class tokenomics: 91% of supply already circulating, dilution risk around +14%, fair value ratio 0.92x (about $55B fair value versus ~$50B market cap).
On real usage it is not a “promise” category anymore: ~70M transactions per day, 4M+ active addresses weekly, #1 chain by DEX volume (1.5T+ YTD), ~$5B+ annualized ecosystem fees, DeFi TVL around $8–9B (#2 after Ethereum). It also has institutional access via spot SOL ETFs (BSOL, TSOL).
The contrast versus most alt-L1s is simple: worse float and higher future dilution, while SOL is already largely unlocked and priced near fair value. The risks are clear: a history of outages, a meaningful share of 2025 volume driven by memes, and pressure from Ethereum L2s.
12-month outlook is scenario-based: $60 bear case (20%), $150 base case (50%), $300 bull case (30%).
The model’s positioning is accumulation below $100, strong support around $60, key resistance levels at $150 and $200, ATH at ~$295.
