😘 KISS of Death 😘
Arthur Hayes once again delivered an impressive analysis in his new article, offering hope to the skeptics who don’t believe in a positive scenario.
I'm not interested in Trump’s ability to stir up drama in the global community, but rather his ability to finance his political goals.
Recently, he's been quite accurate in predicting the market and interpreting trends. His logic is simple: he focuses on the main market trigger—the money supply (or liquidity)—around which he builds all his assumptions. And this seems to be the most successful and accurate approach.
Key points from the article:
🟢 Hayes sees Trump not as an ideologue or politician, but as a businessman and financier accustomed to working with credit and debt. Therefore, he won’t go for austerity but will finance his "America First" agenda with cheap credit. History, just like the market, teaches us patterns: if you want to become a great president, print money.
🟢 The conflict between the Treasury and the Fed: Bessent supports Trump, while Powell is acting in the interests of the old elite, lowering interest rates before the election to help the Democrats. This creates uncertainty in monetary policy under Trump 2.0.
🟢 Economic manipulation and recession: It benefits Trump to provoke a recession, so the Fed will start printing money and cutting rates. The foundation of the US economy is built on credit and debt, and a slowdown in growth will lead to a wave of defaults, forcing the Fed to step in and save the system.
To achieve this, he will bring in Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which will cut costs and mass-fire government officials, further exacerbating the economic situation.
🟢 Pressure on the Fed: If the economy starts to contract, the Fed will have to:
Lower interest rates (-0.25% ≈ +$100 billion in liquidity),
Halt balance sheet reduction (+$540 billion),
Restore QE and ease banking regulations.
As a result, about $3 trillion could flow into the system—70-80% of the COVID-era stimulus. During the last cycle like this, Bitcoin rose 24 times; now Hayes expects a 10-fold increase 🟠
🟢 Conclusion: Hayes believes that the “Trump 2.0” strategy will lead to a weaker dollar, higher inflation, and increased liquidity, which will be the catalyst for a new bullish cycle in the crypto market. Of course, it's important to understand that this schedule is not a matter of 1-2 weeks—such events may take anywhere from six months to a year.
💰 I firmly believe we are still in a bull cycle, But There is possibility of $70,000 retest.
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